I enjoy discussing Presidential campaign politics as much as I enjoy tilling the red clay in my backyard when it hasn’t rained in a few weeks. It’s tedious, gets me hot under the collar, and only has marginal capability of providing me with anything of beauty or worth in the end. So I tread carefully when discussing our Presidential picks. I leave that to my friends in the District. I keep my feet firmly planted in state and local affairs. Yet my ears perked up when I was listening to FiveThirtyEight’s podcast some time ago on Hillary making ad buys in Georgia. And then again today when the DPG emailed out the NY Times front page line indicating Georgia may be a swing state for HRC. First, the NY Times knows little about Georgia politics. Yet FiveThirtyEight is a strictly data oriented site. If you are unaware of FiveThirtyEight, it’s really a fantastic podcast and the analysis of polling is really both delightful and heartbreaking, depending upon how you perceive the results. Nate Silver, Harry Enten, Claire Malone, and Jody Avirgan are the political nerds people like me look to for the cold hard numbers to back up or destroy our assumptions. I find their humor engaging, their discussions meaningful to understanding the macro in our nation’s politics, and I always find their insights thought provoking.
It should be said, aside from admiring this team, their work and their expertise, I admire data above all. I trust the data more times than not. If the numbers tell you something, believe it. In their August 29th podcast, Nate Silver encourages the listeners to look beyond the numbers though, for the inevitable “swing” where Clinton’s lead across the nation will inevitably fall in certain areas. The group discussion centers around where that swing and fall may occur. You can click on the link and at about minute 29 they get into the Georgia discussion.
Spoiler alert: I disagree. Continue reading “Will HRC Really Win Georgia?”